The Euro Just Hit a 17-Month Low π Is 1.10 Next?
UR/USD fell to 1.1150 on Monday, its weakest level since May 2025, as a hawkish Fed, higher oil and French budget worries kept pressure on the euro. The 4H chart shows a descending triangle: lower highs pressing into a floor tested three times. A 4H close below 1.1150 opens 1.1105 and then 1.1050, a
π The euro just hit a 17-month low. Is 1.10 next? EUR/USD dropped to 1.1150 on Monday, its weakest level since May 2025.
What's driving it: π¦ A hawkish Fed: officials are still talking about higher rates π’οΈ Oil prices rising on Strait of Hormuz tensions π«π· The French budget standoff weighing on the euro π The setup (4H): a descending triangle π» Lower highs: 1.1305 β 1.1243 𧱠A flat floor at 1.1150β1.1165, now tested 3 times β οΈ Daily RSI is about 22, deeply oversold, so the rubber band is stretched
ποΈ This week (Bucharest time): π₯ Wed 15:30: US CPI inflation, the big one π Thu 15:30: PPI and retail sales π€ All week: Fed speakers, including Fed Chair Warsh π― Game plan: π΄ 4H close below 1.1150 β 1.1105, then 1.1050 (the May 2025 low) π’ Oversold bounce β possible retest of 1.1243 first β Invalid above 1.1250 A floor tested three times usually gets weaker each time. A hot CPI could be what breaks it. 1.1050 or a bounce to 1.1243? π